12.6.1: Ways of Measuring Divorce

 12.6.1: Ways of Measuring Divorce You probably have heard that the U.S. divorce rate is 50 percent, a figure that is popular with reporters. The statistic is true in the sense that each year about half as many divorces are granted as there are marriages performed. The totals are about 2 million marriages and 1 million divorces (Statistical Abstract 2019:Table 134). What is wrong, then, with saying that the divorce rate is about 50 percent? Think about it for a moment. Why should we compare the number of divorces and marriages that take place during the same year? The couples who divorced do not—with rare exceptions—come from the group that married that year. The one number has nothing to do with the other, so in no way do these two statistics reveal the divorce rate. What figures should we compare, then? Couples who divorce come from the entire group of married people in the country. Since the United States has 63,000,000 married couples and about 1 million of them get divorced in a year, the divorce rate for any given year is less than 2 percent. A couple’s chances of still being married at the end of a year are higher than 98 percent—not bad odds—and certainly much better odds than the mass media would have us believe. As the following Social Map shows, the “odds”—if we want to call them that—depend on where you live.

 Figure 12.12 The “Where” of U.S. Divorce

Over time, of course, each year’s small percentage adds up. A third way of measuring divorce, then, is to ask, “Of all U.S. adults, what percentage is divorced?” Figure 12.13 answers this question. You can see how divorce has increased over the years and how race–ethnicity makes a difference for the likelihood that couples will divorce. But this figure only shows us the percentage of Americans who are currently divorced. Those who have remarried don’t show up here. Figure 12.13 The Increase in Divorce

We get yet another answer if we ask the question, “What percentage of Americans who marry will ever divorce?” The best estimate is about 42 to 45 percent (Amato 2010; Stanley 2015). A divorce rate of 50 percent, then, is actually fairly accurate.