14.1.1: The New Malthusians

 14.1.1: The New Malthusians

 Was Malthus right? This question has provoked heated debate among demographers. One group, which can be called the New Malthusians, is convinced that today’s situation is at least as grim as—if not grimmer than—Malthus ever imagined. For example, the world’s population is growing so fast that in just the time it takes you to read this chapter, another 20,000 to 40,000 babies will be born! By this time tomorrow, Earth will have about 230,000 more people to feed. This increase goes on hour after hour, day after day, without letup. For an illustration of this growth, see Figure 14.1.

The New Malthusians point out that the world’s population is following an exponential growth curve. This means that if growth doubles during approximately equal intervals of time, it suddenly accelerates. To illustrate the far-reaching implications of exponential growth, sociologist William Faunce (1981) retold an old parable about a poor man who saved a rich man’s life. The rich man was grateful and said that he wanted to reward the man for his heroic deed. The man replied that he would like his reward to be spread out over a four-week period, with each day’s amount being twice what he received on the preceding day. He also said he would be happy to receive only one penny on the first day. The rich man immediately handed over the penny and congratulated himself on how cheaply he had gotten by. 454 At the end of the first week, the rich man checked to see how much he owed and was pleased to find that the total was only $1.27. By the end of the second week he owed only $163.83. On the twenty-first day, however, the rich man was surprised to find that the total had grown to $20,971.51. When the twenty-eighth day arrived the rich man was shocked to discover that he owed $1,342,177.28 for that day alone and that the total reward had jumped to $2,684,354.56! This is precisely what alarms the New Malthusians. They claim that humanity has entered the “fourth week” of an exponential growth curve. To see why they think the day of reckoning is just around the corner, look at Figure 14.2. It took from the beginning of time until 1800 for the world’s population to reach its first billion. To add the second billion, it took only 130 years (1930). Just 30 years later (1960), the world population hit 3 billion. The time it took to reach the fourth billion was cut in half, to only 15 years (1975). Then just 12 years later (in 1987) the total reached 5 billion, in another 12 years it hit 6 billion (in 1999), and in yet another 12 years it hit 7 billion (in 2011). World population will reach 8 billion about the year 2024. Hearing from the Author: World Population Growth