14.1.2: The Anti-Malthusians
All of this seems obvious, and no one wants to live shoulder-to-shoulder and fight for scraps. How, then, can anyone argue with the New Malthusians? To find out, let’s turn to a much more optimistic group of demographers, whom we can call the Anti-Malthusians. For them, the future is painted in much brighter colors. They believe that Europe’s demographic transition provides a more accurate picture of the future. This transition is diagrammed in Figure 14.3. During most of its history, Europe was in Stage 1. Europe’s population remained about the same from year to year, because its high death rates offset its high birth rates. Then came Stage 2, the “population explosion” that so upset Malthus. Europe’s population surged because birth rates remained high while death rates went down. Finally, Europe made the transition to Stage 3: The population stabilized as people brought their birth rates into line with their lower death rates. Figure 14.3 The Demographic Transition
Hearing from the Author: The Demographic Transition Listen to the Audio This, say the Anti-Malthusians, will also happen in the Least Industrialized Nations. Their current surge in population growth simply indicates that they have reached Stage 2 of the demographic transition. Hybrid seeds, medicine from the Most Industrialized Nations, and purer public drinking water have cut their death rates, while their birth rates have remained high. When they move into Stage 3, as surely they will, we will wonder what all the fuss was about. In fact, their growth is already slowing.
Large families on U.S. farms used to be common. Children helped plant and harvest crops, take care of animals, and prepare food. As the country industrialized and urbanized, children became nonproducers, making them expensive to have around. Consequently, the size of families shrank as we entered Stage 3 of the demographic transition. This photo was taken in 1887 near Comstock, Nebraska. Credit: Everett Collection/SuperStock
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